What is the mortgage rate forecast for fall 2026?

Core Impact Points

• Mortgage rates have been in the mid-6% range for much of 2026, with recent jumps due to the US-Iran conflict and inflation concerns.
• Experts predict that rates may stay high or increase slightly, with Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasting unchanged rates for the rest of 2026.
• Rising oil prices could push up inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, which may further impact mortgage rates.
• For mortgage rates to drop, experts say inflation must cool, the labor market must slow down, or lower 10-year Treasury yields must drive investors to seek safety.
• Homebuyers can still make buying a home affordable in a high-rate environment by considering strategies like adjustable-rate mortgages, temporary rate buydowns, or down payment assistance programs.
• The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting may influence mortgage rates, with a 75% chance of a rate hike according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.